Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-01 4.451001 5.265756 6.168263 7.239388 8.473091 9.846542 11.488290
2025-06-08 3.101358 4.159776 5.463969 7.176413 9.351308 12.005716 15.472920
2025-06-15 2.446892 3.648958 5.267520 7.575011 10.742857 14.896420 20.702744
2025-06-22 1.908337 3.128726 4.905791 7.626475 11.617194 17.172809 25.385482
2025-06-29 1.519306 2.714913 4.582727 7.628261 12.360108 19.294517 30.041797
2025-07-06 1.227861 2.376869 4.291722 7.597213 13.003710 21.293610 34.682544
2025-07-13 1.117638 2.314142 4.418455 8.225467 14.717694 25.041151 42.271164
2025-07-20 0.972596 2.153532 4.343883 8.492235 15.857566 27.984098 48.864326
2025-07-27 0.861679 2.031938 4.312568 8.817834 17.116084 31.214758 56.178723
2025-08-03 0.734240 1.846968 4.127372 8.827353 17.806942 33.544453 62.185195
2025-08-10 0.599583 1.614040 3.804707 8.521069 17.874218 34.788841 66.430778
2025-08-17 0.482530 1.391865 3.461997 8.117263 17.695822 35.559142 69.883481
2025-08-24 0.406419 1.253007 3.279866 8.029118 18.143637 37.552386 75.778949
2025-08-31 0.342092 1.127951 3.106560 7.935175 18.571947 39.557241 81.887941
2025-09-07 0.316376 1.102257 3.163602 8.361688 20.125620 43.851691 92.622154
2025-09-14 0.275235 1.020278 3.065849 8.414555 20.883399 46.642984 100.688858
2025-09-21 0.237970 0.939101 2.954056 8.415318 21.522753 49.244763 108.576726
2025-09-28 0.204968 0.861447 2.835985 8.381011 22.075012 51.707750 116.364624
2025-10-05 0.200611 0.880832 2.991980 9.066243 24.361084 57.973525 132.272457
2025-10-12 0.183585 0.849881 2.997221 9.357056 25.743737 62.419044 144.736554
2025-10-19 0.170014 0.827851 3.024986 9.711937 27.316232 67.391797 158.624677
2025-10-26 0.149173 0.770415 2.932695 9.722302 28.040609 70.552797 168.894306
2025-11-02 0.123714 0.684259 2.730306 9.388459 27.859228 71.667817 174.848268